{"id":961,"date":"2026-06-17T12:12:52","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T10:12:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.toutsurmesfinances.com\/actualites\/?p=961"},"modified":"2026-06-17T12:12:52","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T10:12:52","slug":"inflation-2026-en-france-la-banque-de-france-releve-ses-previsions-a-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.toutsurmesfinances.com\/actualites\/a\/inflation-2026-en-france-la-banque-de-france-releve-ses-previsions-a-25","title":{"rendered":"Inflation 2026 en France : la Banque de France rel\u00e8ve ses pr\u00e9visions \u00e0 2,5%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Les prix \u00e0 la consommation devraient grimper de 2,5% en 2026. Telle est la nouvelle pr\u00e9vision d\u2019inflation dans l\u2019Hexagone \u00e9tablie par la Banque de France dans ses projections macro\u00e9conomiques publi\u00e9es le 16 juin. Elle correspond \u00e0 une correction \u00e0 la hausse de 0,8 point de pourcentage, par rapport \u00e0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.toutsurmesfinances.com\/actualites\/a\/la-hausse-des-prix-devrait-rebondir-en-2026\">pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente pr\u00e9vision \u00e9tablie en mars<\/a> (+ 1,7%). Une r\u00e9vision due \u00e0 la flamb\u00e9e des prix des hydrocarbures provoqu\u00e9e par le conflit au Moyen-Orient d\u00e9clench\u00e9 le 28 f\u00e9vrier dernier.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Hypotheses_entachees_dincertitudes\"><\/span>Hypoth\u00e8ses entach\u00e9es d\u2019incertitudes<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>L\u2019institution mon\u00e9taire pr\u00e9cise que cette pr\u00e9vision est celle de son sc\u00e9nario de base, calqu\u00e9 sur les hypoth\u00e8ses de la Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne (BCE), laquelle repose sur une hausse \u00ab\u00a0provisoire\u00a0\u00bb des prix du p\u00e9trole et du gaz. Elles ne tiennent pas compte de la signature \u00e9lectronique, le 15 juin, d\u2019un protocole d\u2019accord entre les \u00c9tats\u2011Unis et l\u2019Iran pour mettre fin \u00e0 la guerre.<\/p>\n<p>L\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de la hausse des prix s\u2019explique par le rench\u00e9rissement de l\u2019\u00e9nergie et sa diffusion \u00e0 d\u2019autres secteurs. Elle correspond \u00e0 l\u2019un des sc\u00e9narios d\u00e9favorables \u00e9chafaud\u00e9s en mars, qui se fondait sur une chute du transit d\u2019hydrocarbures par le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre, qui s\u2019est mat\u00e9rialis\u00e9e. Dans ces conditions, le pouvoir d\u2019achat des m\u00e9nages devrait reculer \u00ab\u00a0temporairement\u00a0\u00bb cette ann\u00e9e, avant de rebondir en 2027.<\/p>\n<p>Selon son nouveau sc\u00e9nario de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence, bas\u00e9 sur l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se d\u2019une r\u00e9ouverture prochaine du d\u00e9troit et une \u00ab\u00a0cessation compl\u00e8te des hostilit\u00e9s cet \u00e9t\u00e9\u00a0\u00bb, la surchauffe des prix devrait s\u2019av\u00e9rer transitoire, avec un reflux de l\u2019inflation \u00e0 1,7% en 2027 comme en 2028.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Des_scenarios_alternatifs_tres_contrastes_selon_lissue_du_conflit\"><\/span>Des sc\u00e9narios alternatifs tr\u00e8s contrast\u00e9s selon l\u2019issue du conflit<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Consciente de l\u2019issue incertaine du conflit entre l\u2019Iran et les \u00c9tats-Unis, la Banque de France propose trois autres trajectoires alternatives. Un sc\u00e9nario plus favorable repose sur une baisse plus rapide et plus prononc\u00e9e des prix des hydrocarbures, ce qui permettrait de ramener l\u2019inflation \u00e0 2,3% cette ann\u00e9e et \u00e0 1,5% en 2027.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c0 l\u2019inverse, deux sc\u00e9narios plus d\u00e9favorables, fond\u00e9s sur une poursuite des hostilit\u00e9s entra\u00eenant une aggravation de la crise \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, provoqueraient le maintien d\u2019une inflation plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e (+2,7% en 2026 dans le sc\u00e9nario d\u00e9favorable et +4% dans le sc\u00e9nario tr\u00e8s d\u00e9favorable), p\u00e9nalisant davantage l\u2019\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise.<\/p>\n<p>En parall\u00e8le de cette pouss\u00e9e des prix, la Banque de France a r\u00e9duit sa pr\u00e9vision de croissance du PIB pour 2026 de 0,9% \u00e0 0,5% dans son sc\u00e9nario de base, tandis que le taux de ch\u00f4mage devrait l\u00e9g\u00e8rement remonter \u00e0 8,1%, contre 8% initialement et 7,7% en 2025.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Face \u00e0 la flamb\u00e9e du prix du p\u00e9trole et ses effets induits, la Banque de France a rehauss\u00e9 ses projections d\u2019\u00e9volution des prix \u00e0 la consommation de 0,8 point de pourcentage. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13709,"featured_media":962,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-961","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-la-une"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Inflation 2026 en France : la Banque de France rel\u00e8ve ses pr\u00e9visions \u00e0 2,5%<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"La Banque de France a rehauss\u00e9 ses projections d\u2019\u00e9volution des prix \u00e0 la consommation 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